# Expected move

The range options are pricing for the session, and how to use the 1σ band.

The **expected move** is the range the options market is pricing for an
underlying over a period, usually shown as a band above and below the current
price. A one standard deviation (1σ) band is expected to contain the move
about two times out of three.

## The bands in q-bitf

| Band | What it covers |
|---|---|
| **Upper / lower 1σ** | The expected move for the rest of today. It narrows as the session runs out |
| **1D max / min** | A projected outer band for the full day |

## How to use it

- **Size and targets.** A trade that needs more than the expected move is
  asking for an unusual day.
- **Fades at the edge.** In a positive gamma regime, moves into the edge of
  the band, especially near a wall, are good fade candidates.
- **Breaks.** Trading beyond the 1D band means the day has moved further than
  options priced in. In negative gamma that often keeps going.

The expected move comes from how options are priced, so it widens before
known events such as CPI or FOMC. Check the
[economic calendar](https://q-bitf.com/docs/app/macro-and-market) for what is coming.

## Questions

### What is the expected move?

The range the options market is pricing for an underlying over a period, shown as a band around the current price.

### How often does price stay inside the expected move?

A one standard deviation band is expected to hold the move about two times out of three, though real markets have fatter tails.