# Event Odds

The next three macro releases for your market: the odds of a cooler, in-line or hotter print, the options-implied move, and how the market reacted before.

**Event Odds** lists the next three economic releases that matter for the
workspace market (CPI, jobs, retail sales, Fed decisions and more), with a
countdown to each. Every row shows:

| Element | What it is |
|---|---|
| **Headline** | The market's median expectation, or the most likely Fed outcome |
| **C / = / H** | Market odds of a **cooler**, **in-line** or **hotter** result than expected |
| **▲ ▼** | How the market moved after past releases in that scenario, shown only where the history gives a clear lean (◆ mixed, – no clear edge, · not enough history) |
| **IM** | The options-implied move to the expiry covering the release, and the expected move on the release day itself |

When too little is traded on a release to trust the odds, the row says **thin market,
odds hidden** rather than showing unreliable numbers.

Marked **(Beta)** in the widget picker: it is newer, and some of the data
behind it can lag the live market by several minutes.

## Practical application

![Event Odds widget, illustrative example: CPI next week with a clear reaction history](https://q-bitf.com/docs-img/event-odds.png "Illustrative example data, not a real session. NQ: CPI in 6 days, median 0.3%, odds 27% cooler / 46% in line / 27% hotter, implied move ±1.62% with ±1.18% on the day; Retail Sales thin; Fed Hold 78%.")

**Reading it.** The next release for NQ is **CPI in 6 days 16 hours**, with a
median expectation of **0.3%**. The market gives 27% to a cooler print, 46% to
in line and 27% to hotter. History has a clear lean on both tails: **▲** after
cooler prints and **▼** after hotter ones, with no edge when it comes in line.
Options price **±1.62%** to the CPI expiry, **±1.18%** of it on the day. Retail
Sales follows, but its odds are hidden because the market is thin. The Fed in
December is priced at **Hold 78%**.

**What it means.** CPI is a real two-sided risk: about a one-in-four chance
each way of a surprise, and NQ has moved the same way after past surprises.
Options already expect a move of more than 1% on the day.

**How to use it.**

- **Before the release, size for the implied move.** A ±1.18% day on NQ is
  over 300 points; stops tighter than that can be hit by noise.
- **Where history shows ▲ or ▼,** have a plan for both outcomes instead of
  guessing the print.
- **Big in-line odds with no edge** suggest a muted reaction unless the
  surprise is large.
- **Thin market, odds hidden:** rely on the implied move only.