# HV Projection

Today's likely range projected from the prior close using how far the market has really moved.

**HV Projection** projects today's likely range from the prior close, using how
far the market has actually moved over recent sessions. It draws:

| Line | What it marks |
|---|---|
| **VNZ** (Volatility Neutral Zone) | Centered on the prior close: inside it, the day hasn't really moved yet |
| **Bull avg / Bear avg** | The average up and down day, projected from the close |
| **Bull max / Bear max** | The largest up and down day in the sample |
| **Ceiling / Floor** | Historical bounds most days stay inside |
| **IV wall up / down** | The close plus or minus what options imply for today |

The header shows today's change from the prior close. Choose how many sessions
to learn from (**60**, **120** or **252**) under **lookback** in Details.

## Practical application

![HV Projection widget, illustrative example: an ordinary up day that stops short of the average up move](https://q-bitf.com/docs-img/hv-projection.png "Illustrative example data, not a real session. NQ, 120-session lookback: prior close 26,935.66, up 0.52% on the day; bull average 27,288.42 (+1.31%), IV wall up 27,417.75, ceiling 27,496.41.")

**Reading it.** NQ closed yesterday at **26,935.66**, the center of the VNZ.
Today it leaves the zone (26,841 to 27,030) by mid-morning and climbs to
about 27,245 by early afternoon, then fades to close **+0.52%**. It never
reaches the **bull average** at 27,288.42: an average up day over the last
120 sessions is +1.31%. The IV wall up (27,417.75) and the ceiling
(27,496.41) are further above. On the downside, the average down day would
have reached 26,605.99.

**What it means.** By the standards of recent sessions, this was an ordinary
up day, and the high stalled before the first projected level. Nothing about
the range was stretched.

**How to use it.**

- **Price inside the VNZ:** the day hasn't chosen a direction; breakout
  trades out of the zone have room to the averages.
- **Price near Bull avg or Bear avg:** the typical day's move is done. Take
  partial profits, and be careful adding.
- **Price beyond the IV wall or the ceiling/floor:** a rare day. Respect the
  trend, but expect sharp pullbacks.
- **Use the 252-session lookback** for a calmer, long-run picture, or 60 to
  reflect only the latest regime.