# Implied Distribution

The options-implied probability cone for price over the coming weeks, next to the recent candles.

**Implied Distribution** shows the range of prices the options market is
pricing for the coming weeks. These are market-priced odds, not a forecast:
they include what traders pay for protection, so they lean further toward
falls than real-world outcomes usually do. Recent candles sit on the left of the **TODAY**
line; on the right, a heat cone colors each price by how likely it is: the
brighter the color, the more probable. The white line is the median, the
dashed lines the 25 to 75% and 5 to 95% ranges, and the call and put walls are
drawn across. The header gives the next session's one-standard-deviation range.

Choose the history window (**Intraday**, **2W**, **1M**, **2M**, **3M**), the
candle size, the color scale and whether to show quantiles in the toolbar.
**Details** lists, for each expiry, its one-standard-deviation range and the
chance of finishing above the call wall or below the put wall.

Marked **(Beta)** in the widget picker: it is newer, and some of the options
data behind it can lag the live market by several minutes.

## Practical application

![Implied Distribution widget, illustrative example: a cone that leans up in the middle but has a longer tail below](https://q-bitf.com/docs-img/implied-distribution.png "Illustrative example data, not a real session. NQ at 27,075 after two months in a range: next session's 1σ range 26,787.87 to 27,375.56 (±1.09%); the cone reaches about 25,126 to 28,595 (5% to 95%) two weeks out.")

**Reading it.** After two months of candles holding between about 26,600
and 27,200, the cone opens from today's 27,075. For the next session the
header gives a one-standard-deviation range of **26,787.87 to 27,375.56
(±1.09%)**. The cone is not symmetric: the median drifts up toward about
27,214 by Nov 19, while the dashed lines reach further down than up (about
25,126 at the 5% line against 28,595 at the 95% line, two weeks out). In
Details, the chance of finishing above the 27,250 call wall rises from 32%
tomorrow to 49% two weeks out; the chance of finishing below the 26,600 put
wall rises from 8% to 28%.

**What it means.** Options price small gains as slightly more likely than
small losses, but a larger move if price does fall: the usual shape for index
options, where protection below the market is in demand.

**How to use it.**

- **Set targets inside the bright band** and treat the outer dashed lines as
  unlikely extremes for the horizon you trade.
- **Use the probabilities in Details** to judge a level: a 32% priced chance
  of closing above the call wall tomorrow says a breakout is possible, not
  likely. Read them as the market's pricing rather than exact odds.
- **A longer tail below** means stops under support should allow for a
  faster drop than the move up.
- Compare the 1σ range with [Expected Move](https://q-bitf.com/docs/widgets/expected-move) and
  with how far the session has already traveled.