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IV Term Structure

At-the-money implied volatility for every expiry, with the 30-day VIX window marked.

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IV Term Structure plots at-the-money implied volatility for every listed expiry, front to back. The header shows the front expiry's IV and how many expiries are plotted; the VIX window marks the 30-day stretch the VIX measures. Details lists every expiry's IV and the slope from front to back, labeled backwardation when the front is higher.

Marked (Beta) in the widget picker: it is newer, and some of the options data behind it can lag the live market by several minutes.

Practical application#

IV Term Structure widget, illustrative example: front expiries priced well above the back during an event week
Illustrative example data, not a real session. NQ: front IV 31.50% against 23.20% at 90 days, slope -8.30 points (backwardation); the curve bottoms near 21% at two weeks.

Reading it. The same-day expiry is priced at 31.50% and the next day's at 28.4%, while everything from one week out sits between 21% and 23%. The slope from front to back is -8.30 points, so Details labels it backwardation. The curve bottoms near 21% at 14 days and climbs slowly to 23.2% at 90.

What it means. Only the next few days carry extra premium: the market is pricing a specific near-term event, not a lasting rise in volatility. Once the event passes, the front of the curve usually drops back toward 21 to 22%.

How to use it.

  • Steep backwardation in the first few days: expect bigger moves around the event, and expect same-day options to lose their premium quickly after it.
  • Front well below the back (contango): a calm market; ranges and fades tend to work better.
  • Where the curve bottoms shows how long the market expects the event to matter. Here, about a week.
  • Compare it with IV Smile to see whether that premium is in the puts, the calls or both.